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JNCI Cancer Spectrum

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match JNCI Cancer Spectrum's content profile, based on 10 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Connecting Baseline Immune Exhaustion in Hot Tumors to Oral Cancer Recurrence and Nodal Metastasis

Shaikh, S.; Basu, S.; Hajihosseini, M.; Nandy, S. K.; Moorthy, M.; Arun, I.; Lali, B. S.; Arun, P.; Mukherjee, G.; Pyne, S.

2026-05-30 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.27.26354295 medRxiv
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Background: The use of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) in the treatment of cancer has rapidly expanded over the last decade. However, there are several knowledge gaps in understanding how tumor cells evade the immune system. There is paucity of data in HPV negative oral cancer, particularly of the gingivobuccal region. Understanding the mechanism of immune system evasion in this cancer is vital for improving patient outcomes. Methods: We characterized the baseline immune milieu of oral cancer using immunohistochemistry (IHC) on whole tumor sections from 124 cases. Tumors were classified as hot or cold and further stratified into high-risk and low-risk groups. High-risk patients included those with lymph node metastasis at diagnosis/recurrence or distant metastasis within 2 years of treatment completion. Patients without these features were categorized as low risk. Validation by RNA-Seq and Joint Enrichment Analysis of Oncogenic and Immunologic Pathways was carried out in a subset of 46 cases. Results: Hot high-risk tumors (by IHC) were distinguished by elevated PD-L1 expression and reduced NK-cell, PD1, and CTLA-4 expression. There was no difference in the expression levels of CD3+, CD8+, granzyme, or perforin compared to hot low-risk tumors, findings that align with the definition of hot tumors. RNA-Seq revealed a gene signature associated with exhausted T-cells in hot high-risk tumors. Gene and pathway analyses identified differential upregulation of isoform-specific TOX, TCF, CXCR, RUNX, IRF, BRD and BCL6 genes, implicating immune cell exhaustion and tumor aggressiveness. Significantly downregulated genes included PDCD1, HAVCR2, ZAP70, and STAT, indicative of a disabled immune microenvironment. These findings support that a state of immune exhaustion in HHR tumors is driven by progenitor exhausted T-cells and terminally exhausted T-cells; independent of PD1-TIM3. Conclusion: These findings suggest that combining TOX/TCF/BCL6 inhibitors with immune checkpoint inhibitors in the adjuvant setting might benefit patients with hot high-risk tumors. Given the results, testing for a targeted exhaustion-related gene panel at diagnosis is recommended for oral cancers to stratify tumors as high-risk or low-risk. Larger validation studies and clinical trials are now warranted.

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Nationwide Trends and Outcomes in Major Gastrointestinal Cancer Surgery

espinoza, r. e. d. a.; Bastos, L. S. L.; Hamacher, S.; Salluh, J. I. F.; Bozza, F. A.

2026-05-27 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.26.26354087 medRxiv
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Background Complex gastrointestinal (GI) oncologic surgeries carry substantial perioperative risk, and nationwide outcomes in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are underreported. This study aimed to evaluate national trends in surgical volume, in-hospital mortality, and intensive care unit (ICU) utilization for major GI cancer surgery in Brazils Unified Health System (SUS) over a 14-year period. Methods A population-based analysis was performed using national administrative databases to identify all adult patients undergoing colectomy, gastrectomy, pancreatic resection or esophagectomy for cancer in the SUS from 2010-2023. Annual rates were age-standardized according to the WHO standard population. Temporal trends were assessed using Poisson regression to estimate average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results A total of 179,337 hospital admissions were analyzed (median age 63 years; 48% female). Colectomies accounted for 72% of cases, followed by gastrectomies (19%), pancreatic resections (5%), and esophagectomies (3%). Although crude surgical volume increased, population-adjusted rates declined overall (AAPC -2.09%; 95% CI -2.58 to -1.59), mainly due to reductions in gastrectomies and esophagectomies. Median hospital stay decreased from 9 to 7 days (AAPC -1.93%; 95% CI -2.79 to -1.06). Overall in-hospital mortality declined from 8.1% to 5.7% (AAPC -2.88%; 95% CI -4.15 to -1.59). ICU utilization rose from 37% to 43% of admissions (AAPC +1.31%; 95% CI 0.91 to 1.71). Conclusion Over 14 years, in-hospital mortality and length of stay for major gastrointestinal cancer surgery declined within Brazils universal public health system. These temporal trends occurred alongside expansion of accredited oncology services and increased ICU utilization, although causal relationships cannot be established from administrative data. These findings should be interpreted as hypothesis-generating and highlight the need for more granular hospital-level data in LMIC settings.

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Cross-Sectional Measures of Periodontal Severity: Distortion from Severity-Dependent Tooth Loss

McCormick, K. M.; Amarasena, N.; Guzzo, G.; Nath, S.; Jamieson, L.

2026-05-30 dentistry and oral medicine 10.64898/2026.05.27.26354277 medRxiv
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Aim: Cross-sectional summaries of periodontitis based on clinical attachment loss (CAL) are, by definition, conditioned on surviving teeth. Because the most severely affected teeth are more likely to have been lost, these measures may underestimate cumulative disease burden and show an artificial flattening (attenuation) of severity with age. We hypothesised that measures more sensitive to severe attachment loss would show greater attenuation at older ages than measures defined across a broader range of sites. Materials and Methods: Using nationally representative data from adults aged 30+ years in NHANES 2009-2014, we examined age-specific trajectories across multiple continuous measures of periodontal severity and assessed whether divergence between measures followed the pattern predicted under severity-dependent tooth loss. Results: The proportion of observable sites declined from 93% at ages 30-34 to 68% at 80+ years, establishing the structural basis for the divergence observed across severity measures. All severity measures showed nonlinear attenuation with age, with distortion increasing with severity threshold. Higher-threshold measures exhibited the greatest attenuation, while lower-threshold measures showed more stable trajectories. Conclusions: Cross-sectional summaries of periodontitis reflect disease among surviving teeth rather than cumulative damage across teeth originally at risk. Attenuation at older ages is consistent with depletion of the most severely affected teeth rather than biological slowing. Distortion varies by measure, with higher-threshold and mean-based indices most affected, whereas the CAL 3+ mm threshold provides a more stable basis for age comparisons.

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Deep Learning Spatial Profiling of CD103+CD8+ T Cells and Survival in Rectal Cancer After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

Abe, T.; Yamashita, K.; Nagasaka, T.; Fujita, M.; Ueda, Y.; Miyake, S.; Ito, R.; Adachi, Y.; Ando, M.; Tsuneki, T.; Okazoe, Y.; Konaka, R.; Takahashi, T.; Kagiyama, H.; Tachibana, T.; Imai, M.; Yoshida, T.; Saito, M.; Mukohyama, J.; Kanayama, K.; Koma, Y.-I.; Otowa, Y.; Hasegawa, H.; Ikeda, T.; Koterazawa, Y.; Aoki, T.; Harada, H.; Urakawa, N.; Goto, H.; Kanaji, S.; Yanagimoto, H.; Matsuda, T.; Takamura, S.; Yamashita, T.; Sasaki, R.; Fukumoto, T.; Kakeji, Y.

2026-05-28 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.26.26353629 medRxiv
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Background: CD8+ tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) are established prognostic markers in colorectal cancer, yet the clinical significance of CD103+CD8+ tissue-resident memory-like (TRM-like) T cells in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NACRT) remains unknown. Methods: We quantified CD8+ and CD103+CD8+ T-cell densities in stromal and intratumoral compartments of post-NACRT resection specimens from 40 LARC patients using Cu-Cyto, a deep learning-based imaging cytometry platform. Associations with survival, pathological response, and adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) were examined. Treatment-induced T-cell dynamics were assessed in paired pretreatment biopsies and post-NACRT resections (n = 9). Results: High stromal CD103+CD8+ density independently predicted better 5-year RFS (67.4% vs. 12.1%, p < 0.001) and OS (80.0% vs. 26.6%, p = 0.016); intratumoral density showed no prognostic significance. Pathological response correlated with stromal CD8+ but not CD103+CD8+ density. Paired analysis revealed a selective non-expansion of the CD103+ subset: stromal CD8+ T cells increased significantly after NACRT while CD103+CD8+ density remained unchanged. AC may preferentially benefit patients with low stromal CD103+CD8+ density. Conclusions: Stromal CD103+CD8+ T-cell density is a robust independent prognostic biomarker in rectal cancer after NACRT that appears to reflect pre-existing rather than treatment-induced immunity. Given its stability across NACRT, pretreatment biopsy assessment may provide equivalent prognostic information, with potential implications for patient stratification before treatment initiation.

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Estimating Lifetime Periodontal Burden Under Informative Tooth Loss

McCormick, K. M.; Amarasena, N.; Guzzo, G.

2026-05-30 dentistry and oral medicine 10.64898/2026.05.27.26354300 medRxiv
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Background: Periodontitis is defined by cumulative, irreversible tissue destruction, yet population-based measurement typically relies on cross-sectional indicators derived from retained teeth. Destruction that occurred earlier in life, particularly disease severe enough to result in tooth loss, is structurally excluded from these measures, potentially leading to systematic underestimation of lifetime periodontal burden. Objective: To develop and evaluate a measurement framework that estimates lifetime periodontal burden from cross-sectional data by explicitly incorporating informative tooth loss under etiological uncertainty. Methods: Data were drawn from 10,324 adults aged [&ge;]30 years participating in the 20090-2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) who completed full-mouth periodontal examination and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) testing. Lifetime periodontal burden was estimated by combining observed clinical attachment loss in retained teeth with probabilistic contributions from missing teeth, using three alternative age-stratified attribution schedules derived from epidemiological studies of periodontal extraction. Performance was compared with conventional measures of periodontal severity and extent using distributional analyses, correlations with HbA1c, discrimination of diabetes status, and relative importance analysis. Age-adjusted models were treated as sensitivity analyses. Results: Estimated lifetime periodontal burden exhibited strong, monotonic age gradients across glycemic categories, in contrast to more attenuated patterns observed for severity and extent. Across attribution schedules, lifetime burden showed stronger correlations with HbA1c ({rho} = 0.30-0.32) than conventional measures. In multivariable models including all indices, lifetime burden retained an independent association with HbA1c, whereas severity and extent contributed little unique information. Discriminative performance for diabetes status was consistently higher for lifetime burden than for conventional measures and remained stable across attribution schedules. Conclusions: Lifetime periodontal burden can be estimated from cross-sectional data by explicitly modelling informative tooth loss rather than restricting measurement to retained teeth. Incorporating historical tissue loss under uncertainty yields a more coherent representation of cumulative periodontal destruction than snapshot-based measures and provides a methodological basis for life-course-oriented periodontal epidemiology.

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Development and Validation of a Machine Learning Model to Predict Prognosis in Patients with Advanced Head and Neck Cancer

Zhang, K.; Gao, L.; John, D.; Li, W. T.; Hogarth, M.; Coffey, C. S.; Ongkeko, W. M.

2026-05-28 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.27.26354194 medRxiv
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Importance Prognostic tools beyond staging are needed to guide treatment and counseling in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Objective To develop and externally validate a machine learning model predicting survival in advanced HNSCC using routinely collected clinical and biomarker data. Design, Setting, and Participants Retrospective, multi-institutional cohort study including 2,385 patients with stage III-IV HNSCC diagnosed from 2012-2022 in the University of California Health Data Warehouse (UCHDW). Patients were randomly split into training (n = 1,908) and test (n = 477) sets. Partial external validation used 7,749 patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry (2010-2020). Exposures Demographic, tumor, treatment, comorbidity, and biomarker variables recorded at or before diagnosis. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was all-cause mortality within 70 months. Cox proportional hazards models included all predictors. Discrimination was assessed with Harrell's concordance index (C-index), calibration with predicted vs observed survival, and stratification with Kaplan-Meier curves. A Random Survival Forest (RSF) was trained for benchmarking and interpretability using Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Results Among 2,385 patients in UCHDW (median age, 63 years; 29.0% mortality), the Cox model achieved a C-index of 0.735 in the internal test set. Risk quartiles showed clear separation on Kaplan-Meier curves (log-rank p < 0.0001). In the SEER cohort (n = 7,749), where only demographic, staging, subsite, and treatment variables were available, the reduced Cox model achieved a C-index of 0.688, with calibration showing modest underestimation of survival in high-risk groups. Age, T stage, Charlson Comorbidity Index, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and platelet count were among the strongest predictors, while surgery was associated with improved survival. The RSF achieved a C-index of 0.758 internally, with SHAP highlighting nonlinear effects of albumin, BMI, and inflammatory markers. Conclusions and Relevance A machine learning model using routine clinical and biomarker data demonstrated good prognostic performance in advanced HNSCC, with partial external validation. Such approaches may support individualized survival estimates, risk stratification, and treatment discussions, but broader validation is required before clinical adoption.

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Pre-infusion Exhaled breath volatile organic compounds predict severe CRS and ICANS after CAR T-cell therapy

Berna, A.; Fahrmann, J.; Irajizad, E.; Rudsari, H.; Liu, Y.; Logan, J.; Murtada, K.; Grandy, J.; Edwards, M.; Ayers, A.; Ahmed, S.; Neelapu, S.; Saini, N.; John, A.; John, T.

2026-06-01 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.28.26354352 medRxiv
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Background: Severe cytokine release syndrome (CRS) and immune effector cell-associated neurotoxicity syndrome (ICANS) are major dose-limiting toxicities of chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy. Existing pre-infusion biomarkers offer modest discrimination, motivating non-invasive alternatives. Methods: We prospectively enrolled 26 patients with relapsed/refractory large B-cell lymphoma receiving axicabtagene ciloleucel. Pre-infusion (day -1) exhaled breath samples were analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry for 40 volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Candidates with univariate AUC > 0.65 for severe (grade >=2) CRS or ICANS were carried forward to sensitivity-maximization-at-given-specificity with LASSO regularization (SMAGS-LASSO), which selected separate panels for each outcome. Model performance was assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation with permutation p-values and Harrell bootstrap optimism correction. Results: The 4-VOC CRS panel (heptanal, benzaldehyde, 2-butanone, ethylbenzene) achieved LOOCV AUC 82.5% (80% sensitivity at 88% specificity) and the 3-VOC ICANS panel (nonanal, allyl methyl sulfide, levomenthol) achieved AUC 86.3% (67% sensitivity at 86% specificity). By tertile, severe CRS occurred in 8/9 (89%) high-risk versus 2/9 (22%) low-risk patients (Cox HR 6.82, 95% CI 1.41-32.9, p=0.017) and severe ICANS occurred in 8/9 (89%) versus 2/9 (22%) (HR 8.28, 95% CI 1.73-39.6, p=0.008). Each 1-SD score increase corresponded to a 3.80-fold higher hazard of severe CRS (p<0.001) and 4.36-fold higher hazard of severe ICANS (p<0.001). In head-to-head comparison, the 3-VOC ICANS panel outperformed the modified Endothelial Activation and Stress Index (mEASIX) (delta-AUC +0.36, DeLong 1-sided p=0.008). The 4-VOC CRS panel had numerically higher AUC than mEASIX (delta-AUC +0.19, p=0.150). Conclusions: Pre-infusion exhaled breath VOC panels stratify CAR T-cell recipients by severity and timing of severe CRS and ICANS, providing a non-invasive complement to existing serum biomarkers. Multi-institutional validation is warranted.

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Antibiotic Timing and Survival After Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor Initiation in Patients With Cancer

Zhang, K.; John, D.; Li, W. T.; Hogarth, M.; McKay, R. R.; Ongkeko, W. M.

2026-05-28 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.27.26354193 medRxiv
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Importance: While gut dysbiosis is known to impair response to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), the relative clinical impact of antibiotic timing (pre- vs. post-ICI initiation) remains unclear. Objective: To evaluate whether antibiotic timing differentially influences overall survival (OS) in a large, multi-institutional pan-cancer cohort. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study utilized deidentified electronic health record data from six academic medical centers within the University of California Health system. We included 21,108 adults with any malignancy who received PD-1, PD-L1, or CTLA-4 inhibitors between January 2014 and December 2024. Exposures: Antibiotic exposure windows were categorized as pre-only (-60 to -1 days), post-only (+1 to +60 days), both windows, or none. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was overall survival (OS) calculated from the first ICI dose. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for demographics, tumor type, line of therapy, and baseline health indicators (albumin, NLR, and recent hospitalization). Results: Among 21,108 patients, 17.3% had pre-only exposure, 13.3% had post-only exposure, and 60.6% had no exposure. In the multivariable model, post-only exposure (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.20-1.35) and combined pre- and post- exposure (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.23-1.40) were significantly associated with higher mortality. Pre-only exposure was not significantly associated with OS (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.99-1.10). Subgroup analyses by tumor type showed consistent trends across major malignancies, including head and neck (Post HR, 1.46) and renal cell carcinoma (Post HR, 1.26). Conclusions and Relevance: In contrast to some smaller studies, this large-scale analysis indicates that antibiotic exposure after ICI initiation carries a greater risk than exposure prior to treatment. These findings highlight the need for rigorous antibiotic stewardship strategies specifically during the early phases of immunotherapy treatment.

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Phenome-Wide Association Study of Pre-Cancer Diagnosis Electronic Health Records Identifies Risk and Inverse Associations in the All of Us Research Program

Rich, C. C. D.; Bang, E. J.; Bair, A. B.; Richardson, B. E.; Millington, J. L.; Bates, B. A.; Davis, M. F.; Bailey, M. H.

2026-05-28 health informatics 10.64898/2026.05.26.26353823 medRxiv
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Background: The All of Us Research Program represents a rich resource for cancer epidemiology research, with over 400,000 participants with whole genome sequences linked to electronic health records (EHR). Large cancer datasets often focus exclusively on cases without controls and neglect pre-diagnosis healthcare occurrences. Here, we perform a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) of EHR data at least 1 year pre-diagnosis between cancer cases and matched controls, revealing co-occurring and mutually exclusive phenotypes. Methods: We identified 55,000+ cancer cases across 21 cancer types in All of Us version 8. To eliminate age-related confounding, we implemented a two-stage matching and censoring strategy: loose matching on demographics to establish index dates and cohort comparability, followed by right-censoring of EHR data (excluding 1 year pre-diagnosis/index), then 1:2 matching to address residual demographic imbalance. We tested associations between 23,193 cancer cases, 46,386 matched controls and approximately 1,600 clinical phenotypes using logistic regression adjusted for sex at birth, self-reported race, age at diagnosis/index date, and two censored EHR metrics: observation window and unique condition count, with Bonferroni correction for multiple testing. Results: Our analysis identified 232 significantly associated phenotypes, confirming established cancer risk factors including elevated prostate specific antigen (OR = 2.92, 95% CI: 2.65-3.23; p-value=1.8x10-101) and multinodular goiter (OR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.56-1.91; p-value=6.7x10-27). Further investigation into the relationship between several phenotypes with seeming inverse effects is warranted. Conclusions: This PheWAS of EHR data at least 1 year pre-diagnosis leveraged the diversity of All of Us to examine how clinical phenotypes prior to cancer diagnosis vary across cancer types and racial groups. Our findings validate All of Us as a robust platform for cancer epidemiology research, confirming established risk factors at scale across diverse populations. This work provides methodological insights for EHR-based susceptibility analyses and demonstrates the value of agnostic phenome-wide approaches for generating hypotheses in precision medicine.

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Cancer Prevalence and Patterns in Kilifi County: A 10-year Retrospective Descriptive Study

Masha, M.; Mbugua, R. W.; Abdullahi, M.; Sheikh, N. A.; Omar, A.; Abdihamid, O.

2026-06-01 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.20.26353643 medRxiv
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Abstract Background Cancer is an increasing public health challenge in Kenya, particularly in rural and underserved regions where surveillance systems and diagnostic capacity remain limited. Kilifi County, located along the Kenyan coast, lacks a population-based cancer registry, and data on the local cancer burden is not available. This study aimed to characterize the demographic distribution of patients, cancer burden in the county, and management of cancer cases diagnosed at Kilifi County Referral Hospital (KCRH) over ten years. Methods This retrospective study analyzed the patterns of cancer in Kilifi County using patient records from KCRH during the study period (January 1, 2014, to January 1, 2024). Results A total of 101 patients with cancer were identified, 58% female, with a mean age of 54 years. Most patients were from Kilifi North (47%), with a high proportion reporting no formal occupation (41%) or farming (26%). Esophageal and cervical cancers were the most common (18% each), followed by breast and prostate cancers (5% each), with other malignancies occurring infrequently. Histopathology was the primary diagnostic modality (88%). Staging data were incomplete in 70% of cases; among documented cases, the majority presented with advanced disease (21% stage IV). Due to limited local treatment capacity, approximately half of the patients were referred to tertiary centers for chemotherapy, radiotherapy, or surgery. At data cut-off, 43% had died, 25% were on treatment, and 29% were lost to follow-up, with only 2% completing treatment or under follow-up. Conclusions This study demonstrates a substantial cancer burden in Kilifi County and highlights critical gaps in diagnostic capacity, staging, and continuity of care. Strengthening cancer surveillance systems, expanding diagnostic and treatment infrastructure, and establishing a population-based cancer registry are essential to improving cancer outcomes and advancing equitable care in rural Kenya

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Survival and neurologic outcomes after re-irradiation in children with diffuse midline glioma and diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma

Vaziri, T.; Vyas, D.; Alhumaid, M.; Lucas, C.-H.; Guryildirim, M.; Kilburn, L.; Gartrell, R. D.; Koldobskiy, M. A.; Raabe, E.; Cohen, K.; Ladra, M.; Acharya, S.

2026-06-01 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354429 medRxiv
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Background: Reirradiation (reRT) is increasingly offered following progression in diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma (DIPG) and diffuse midline glioma (DMG), though optimal patient selection remains a challenge. This study evaluated clinical outcomes after reRT in a contemporary cohort of patients with DIPG/DMG. Methods: Patients <26 years old with DMG/DIPG treated with radiation therapy between 2011-2025 were retrospectively reviewed. Primary endpoints included overall survival (OS2) and progression-free survival (PFS2), measured from first progression, and change in neurologic symptoms after reRT. Survival was estimated using Kaplan Meier methods, with Cox proportional hazards modeling for prognostic factors. Results: Fifty eight patients were included; 37 (63.8%) underwent reRT. Tumors were predominantly pontine (74.1%). ReRT was associated with improvement in motor function (51.4% vs. 9.5%, p=0.002), cranial nerve function (29.7% vs. 4.8%, p=0.044), and gait ataxia (35.1% vs. 9.5%, p=0.059). Median OS2 and PFS2 were improved with reRT (OS2: 9.67 vs. 2.57 months, p<0.001; PFS2: 5.63 vs. 1.57 months, p<0.001). OS2 was independently associated with reRT (HR 0.27, p<0.0001), pontine location (HR 2.94, p=0.004), and steroid use at progression (HR 4.12, p=0.001). PFS2 was independently associated with reRT (HR 0.23, p < .0001) and distant pattern of failure (HR 2.83, p=.037). Among reRT patients, non-pontine location was associated with improved OS2 (p=0.02), and local failure was associated with improved PFS2 (p=0.003). Conclusion: ReRT was associated with neurologic improvement and prolonged survival. Patients with non-pontine tumors or local-only failure might derive the greatest benefit. Prospective studies are warranted to define optimal dose/fractionation and refine patient selection.

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DNA Methylation Signatures of Atherosclerosis and Vascular-Related Outcomes in U.S. and Irish Population-Based Cohorts

Ammous, F.; Smith, T.; Scarlett, S.; Hernandez, B.; McCrory, C.; Kenny, R. A.; Mitchell, C.; Faul, J. D.

2026-05-27 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.25.26354072 medRxiv
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Atherosclerosis is a systemic vascular process linked to cardiovascular, cognitive and renal outcomes. DNA methylation (DNAm)-based scores of atherosclerosis may capture cumulative biological processes underlying vascular aging. Here, we examined associations of DNAm scores for coronary artery calcification (DNAm-CAC) and carotid plaque (DNAm-cPlaque), derived from a large study of imaging-based subclinical atherosclerosis, with prevalent and incident outcomes in two population-based cohorts of older adults: the Health and Retirement Study (HRS; n = 3,875) and The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA; n = 487). Higher DNAm scores were associated with adverse cardiometabolic profiles and socioeconomic indicators. In HRS, higher DNAm-CAC was associated with prevalent cardiovascular disease (odds ratio per SD, 1.16; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.07-1.26), lower cognitive function ({beta} = -0.50, 95% CI -0.68 to -0.32) and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR; -1.7 ml min-1 1.73 m-2, 95% CI -2.6 to -0.8) in unadjusted models. After adjustment for demographic and clinical risk factors, DNAm-CAC ({beta} = -0.29, 95% CI -0.46 to -0.13) and DNAm-cPlaque ({beta} = -0.24, 95% CI -0.42 to -0.06) remained associated with lower cognitive function, and DNAm-cPlaque was associated with incident cognitive impairment or dementia (hazard ratio per SD, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.01-1.32). Associations were attenuated after further adjustment for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic indicators. In TILDA, higher DNAm-cPlaque was associated with worse cognitive performance (incidence rate ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.01-1.21), increased risk of incident cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.00-1.42) and lower eGFR, with consistent associations observed for DNAm-CAC. These findings suggest that DNAm-based scores of atherosclerosis capture systemic vascular processes linked to multiple age-related outcomes across populations. Further work is needed to clarify the biological pathways reflected by these scores and their relation to cumulative and socially patterned vascular risk.

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Associations between serum estradiol and estrone and Alzheimer's disease biomarkers: an analysis in female participants from the European Prevention of Alzheimer's Dementia Longitudinal Cohort Study (EPAD LCS)

Shin, J.; Muniz-Terrera, G.; Ritchie, C.; Manson, J.; Plachecki, S.; Kirschbaum, C.; Gregory, S.

2026-05-30 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.27.26354257 medRxiv
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INTRODUCTION: Postmenopausal estrogen decline may contribute to Alzheimer's disease (AD) risk, but longitudinal evidence linking circulating estrogens to cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers is lacking. METHODS: We analyzed 866 female participants from the European Prevention of AD Longitudinal Cohort Study with baseline serum estradiol and estrone measured by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry and repeated CSF measurements of amyloid-beta (A{beta})42, phosphorylated (p) Tau181, and total (t) Tau. RESULTS: Neither estradiol nor estrone was associated with longitudinal A{beta}42. Higher estradiol was associated with lower baseline tau and slower tau increases over time. Baseline estradiol-tau associations were stronger in apolipoprotein E (APOE) {epsilon}4 carriers, though APOE{epsilon}4 did not modify longitudinal associations. Amyloid positivity did not moderate hormone-tau associations but was associated with steeper tau increases over time. Estrone showed no significant associations. DISCUSSION: These findings suggest a more consistent relationship between estradiol and tau-related rather than amyloid-related pathology.

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Sensitive Glioma Detection and Recurrence Monitoring Using a Machine Learning Model Based on Circulating Monocytes

Wu, W.; Chai, R.; Xia, P.; Wu, L.; Yu, B.; Chen, X.; Pang, B.; Chen, D.; Wang, Y.; Wang, N.; Li, X.; Liu, H.; Deng, Q.; Wan, F.; Lyu, F.; Wang, L.; Zhang, W.; Zhang, J.; Jiang, T.; Wang, Q.

2026-06-01 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354409 medRxiv
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Background: Non-invasive diagnosis, reliable recurrence surveillance remain critical unmet needs in gliomas. Glioma induces profound systemic immune alterations despite its anatomical confinement to the central nervous system. Circulating immune cells, particularly monocytes, are key mediators of tumor-host crosstalk and may retain tumor-induced transcriptional imprints. However, their potential clinical utility as blood-based biomarkers for detection and monitoring, remain largely unexplored. Methods and findings: In this study, we performed integrated single-cell RNA sequencing of blood immune cells and demonstrated that circulating CD14+ monocytes are significantly expanded in glioma patients, exhibiting features of differentiation arrest and increased transcriptional plasticity. These cells harbor glioma-specific molecular signatures distinct from those observed in healthy controls and patients with other tumors. Leveraging these findings, we developed an ensemble machine learning diagnostic model based on transcriptomic profiles of circulating CD14+ monocytes (training cohort, n=107), which achieved a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.971 during cross-validation. In an independent cohort of 567 participants, the model maintained high diagnostic accuracy, yielding an AUC of 0.877 for distinguishing glioma from controls and other tumors. And it achieved a recurrence detection AUC of 0.969 in 51 postoperative samples. Moreover, in a prospective follow-up study involving 30 glioma patients, lower model-derived scores of postoperation were significantly associated with prolonged progression-free survival (log-rank test, P=0.043), supporting its prognostic utility. Conclusion: We demonstrate circulating CD14+ monocytes undergo glioma-specific transcriptional reprogramming, generating systemic tumor-associated signal captured via transcriptomic profiling. This blood-based diagnostic model provides non-invasive, scalable approach for glioma detection, recurrence surveillance, outcome prediction.

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T cell transcriptional and receptor signatures predict response to telomerase vaccination in prostate cancer

Hoye, E.; Natkin, R.; Sajnani, K.; Engedal, N.; Simensen, J. E.; Hakkola, S.; Kiviaho, A.; Ballesio, F.; Cecchetto, T.; Ellingsen, E. B.; Westhrin, M.; Hovig, E.; Mathelier, A.; Visakorpi, T.; Tammela, T. L.; Murtola, T. J.; Eerola, S.; Nykter, M.; Lilleby, W.; Urbanucci, A.

2026-05-30 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.25.26354038 medRxiv
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While prostate cancer (PC) is defined as immunologically cold, limiting the efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors, therapeutic vaccination targeting tumor-associated antigens represents an attractive strategy to promote disease control in low volume metastatic patients. The UV1 cancer vaccine is based on immunization with tripeptide fragments from human telomerase reverse transcriptase (hTERT) and a phase II clinical trial demonstrated induction of robust T cell response in men with de novo metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (mCSPC). Comparison with long-term survival data of non-metastatic CSPC patients as reference showed that despite metastatic disease at diagnosis, UV1-treated patients who mounted an early vaccine-induced immune response achieved progression-free and overall survival comparable to non-metastatic patients. We examined biological determinants of clinical benefit following UV1 vaccination including tumor transcriptome and T cell receptor (TCR) profiling from circulating and tissue resident T-cells of the 22 men enrolled. Analysis of diagnostic and post-UV1 treatment biopsies revealed that low baseline exhaustion of T cells and higher CD8+ T cell abundance are associated with early immune response to the vaccine and longer survival. Moreover, we identified specific TCR motifs relative to early responders, that can indicate potential benefit from UV1 vaccination. These findings indicate that baseline intratumoral T cell exhaustion state and repertoire shape responsiveness to hTERT vaccination and long-term outcome. Overall, our study underlines how baseline immune profiling may be used as a companion biomarker to predict mCSPC patients most likely to benefit from therapeutic vaccination.

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Widespread Hyperalgesia Predicts Mortality in Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma

Faghih, M.; Damm, M.; Kassik, M.-T.; Cheesman, L.; Rauschenberg, S.; Olesen, S. S.; Laheru, D. A.; Zheng, L.; Phillips, A. E.; Yadav, D.; Drewes, A. M.; Rosendahl, J.; Singh, V. K.; International Pancreatic Pain Consortium,

2026-05-27 gastroenterology 10.64898/2026.05.19.26353594 medRxiv
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Pain in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is associated with poor survival, but whether altered pain processing carries prognostic significance is unknown. We analyzed a prospective cohort of 143 patients with PDAC who underwent pancreatic quantitative sensory testing (PQST) after diagnosis. Patients were classified as having normal pain processing (n=84), segmental hyperalgesia (n=30), or widespread hyperalgesia (n=29). Survival was measured from the date of P-QST assessment. During follow-up, 70 deaths occurred. Widespread hyperalgesia was associated with increased mortality in unadjusted Cox analysis (HR 1.96, 95% CI 1.14,3.35) and after adjustment for age, sex, tumor stage, comorbidity, opioid treatment, and body mass index (adjusted HR 2.33, 95% CI 1.30,4.15). Segmental hyperalgesia was not associated with mortality. Kaplan Meier analysis demonstrated lower survival probability in the widespread hyperalgesia group (log rank p=0.025). These findings suggest that widespread hyperalgesia, reflecting altered central pain processing, identifies a subgroup of PDAC patients at increased risk of mortality independent of conventional clinical factors.

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Cell-Free DNA Genomic and Fragmentomic Features for Early Outcome Prediction in Large B-Cell Lymphoma.

Wang, S.; Mapar, P.; Moldovan, N.; van der Pol, Y.; Safrastyan, A.; van Werkhoven, E.; Tantyo, N. A.; Snieder, B.; Do Brito Valente, A. F.; de Jong, A. V.; Dinmohamed, A.; Drees, E. E. E.; Roemer, M. G. M.; Ylstra, B.; Klerk, C. P. W.; Strobbe, L.; Sandberg, Y.; Boersma, R. S.; Koene, H.; Pruijt, H.; de Heer, K.; van Rijn, R.; Bilgin, Y. M.; de Jongh, E.; Nijland, M.; van der Poel, M.; Koster, A.; Nieuwenhuizen, L.; Fijnheer, R.; Beeker, A.; Mous, R.; Vergote, V. K. J.; Vermaat, J. S. P.; Pegtel, D. M.; Chamuleau, M. E. D.; Mouliere, F.

2026-05-30 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.29.26353426 medRxiv
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Curative-intent immunochemotherapy fails in ~30% of patients with large B-cell lymphoma (LBCL), yet no validated molecular tool enables early identification of high-risk individuals to guide treatment intensification. Using shallow whole genome sequencing (sWGS) of plasma cell-free DNA from 190 LBCL patients, we developed and validated the ACT score (Aberrations, fragment Composition, Terminal motifs), a composite classifier integrating genomic and fragmentomic features from a single post-cycle-1 sample. ACT-positive patients had worse 2-year outcomes versus ACT-negative patients: time-to-progression 29% vs. 83% (HR 4.4, 95% CI 1.9 - 10.0; P = 1.5 x 10 - 4) and overall survival 47% vs. 93% (HR 8.7, 95% CI 3.0 - 25.4; P = 1.8 x 10-6). ACT score was independently prognostic of the International Prognostic Index, and their combination identified the highest-risk patients. Unlike mutation-based approaches, this assay requires neither tumor tissue, germline control nor a baseline plasma sample. Built on open-source tools and sWGS, the ACT score offers a feasible scalable strategy for early risk stratification in aggressive LBCL.

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Cancer Medicine Prices, Availability, and Affordability in Kisumu County, Kenya

OKETCH, J. O.; Amolo, S. A.; Onguru, D. O.

2026-05-28 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.27.26354206 medRxiv
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Background: The rising prices of cancer medicines have intensified concerns about treatment access and health system sustainability particularly in low- and middle-income settings. Systematic facility level evidence on what medicines is actually available, at what prices, and at what cost to patients remains scarce, constraining evidence-based policy reform. Methods: Using adapted WHO/Health action international methodology, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of 52 cancer medicines across five therapeutic classes at five health facilities in Kisumu County, Kenya. Availability was measured as the proportion of facilities stocking each medicine. Affordability was assessed using days' wages required for the lowest-paid government worker to purchase standard treatment regimens, calculated per one chemotherapy cycle and maximum possible cycles. Results: Overall medicine availability was 48.1%, with marked inter-facility variation. Affordability analysis revealed severe financial barriers. The breast cancer AC regimen required 19.6-47.4 days' wages per full course; cervical cancer cisplatin, 19.8-49.2 days' wages; colorectal FOLFOX, 80.0-303.6 days' wages; and prostate docetaxel reached 437 days' wages at the highest-cost facility. The Social Health Authority's (SHA) KES 550,000 annual ceiling adequately covered cytotoxic regimens for common cancers at competitive prices but was exceeded by 24-116% for HER2-positive breast cancer requiring trastuzumab, with further strain for recurrent cervical and metastatic prostate cancers. Conclusions: Cancer medicines in Kisumu County are inconsistently available and highly variable in price resulting in inequitable access. We call for urgent retail price markup regulation, expanded pooled procurement through KEMSA, inclusion of priority targeted therapies on the Kenya Essential Medicines List, and SHA benefit packages redesigned around full-course regimen costs.

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24-hour sleep-wake regularity and cognitive aging among 74,733 middle-aged and older adults from the US and Europe: The LifeSPAN Consortium

Hoepel, S. J. W.; Albrecht, A.; Chen, J.; Cribb, L.; Danilevicz, I. M.; Buchman, A. S.; Barnes, L. L.; Bennett, D. A.; Bertisch, S. M.; Burns, A. C.; Hughes, T. M.; Ancoli-Israel, S.; Lim, A.; Luik, A. I.; Purcell, S. M.; Redline, S.; Stone, K. L.; Wolters, F. J.; Xiao, Q.; Yaffe, K.; Yiallourou, S.; Wallace, M. L.; Li, P.; Sabia, S.; Pase, M. P.; Leng, Y.

2026-06-01 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.22.26353492 medRxiv
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Abstract Importance: Irregular sleep-wake patterns have been associated with poor health and cognitive outcomes, yet evidence linking 24-hour sleep-wake regularity to cognitive decline or dementia remains inconsistent. Particularly, regularity can be measured as regularity of rest-wake, sleep-wake or overall 24-hour activity, but it is unclear which aspects are most relevant for cognitive aging. Objective: To assess associations of rest-wake, sleep-wake, and 24-hour activity regularity with cognitive decline and dementia risk. Design: Observational prospective study comprised of six US and European cohorts: MrOS (sleep study between 2003-2005, mean follow-up: 7.1 years), Rotterdam Study (2004-2007, 11.6 years), MESA (2010-2013, 8.2 years), MAP (2005-2018, 7.2 years), Whitehall II (2012-2013, 6.9 years), and UKB (2013-2015, 7.9 years). Setting: Cohort-specific estimates were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Analyses were done between June 2025 and March 2026. Participants 74,733 dementia-free adults with multi-day actigraphy were included across cohorts: MrOS (age: 67-96 years, female:0%), MESA (54-95y, female:54.6%), Rotterdam Study (46-98y, female:55.0%), MAP (56-100y, female:77.1%), Whitehall II (59-83y, female:25.9%), and UKB (55-78y, female:55.5%). Exposure: Day-to-day rest-wake regularity (Rest Regularity Index, RRI), day-to-day sleep-wake regularity (Sleep Regularity Index, SRI), and 24-hour activity regularity (Interdaily Stability, IS) were derived from multi-day actigraphy. Main Outcome: Outcomes were risk of dementia and changes in global cognition. Results: Across six cohorts, 1,906 dementia cases occurred among 74,733 participants. After adjusting for demographics, health behaviors, depressive symptoms and cardiovascular comorbidities, each 1-SD higher regularity score was associated with an 9-14% lower dementia risk (pooled hazard ratios: RRI 0.86 95%CI: [0.79-0.95]; SRI 0.87[0.79-0.97]; IS: 0.91[0.88-0.95]). Associations were approximately linear. Age-stratified analyses showed directionally stronger associations among adults aged < 65, although meta-regression did not support an interaction(p > 0.55). Greater regularity was associated with modestly slower decline in global cognition (pooled {beta} per 1-SD higher score of RRI per year: 0.003, 95%CI [0.001-0.006]). Conclusions & Relevance: Greater regularity of rest-wake, sleep-wake, and 24-hour activity rhythms was associated with lower dementia risk and modestly slower global cognitive decline. These findings suggest that 24-hour sleep-wake regularity is a relevant behavioral marker of cognitive aging and may inform future efforts to identify or intervene on early risk.

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DKK1 and CKAP4 expression is associated with cervical lymph node metastasis in tongue squamous cell carcinoma

Fujita, H.; Takahashi, O.; Yada, N.; Tanaka, J.; Haraguchi, K.; Morioka, M.; Yaginuma, T.; Sasaguri, M.; Kokabu, S.; Habu, M.

2026-06-01 dentistry and oral medicine 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354440 medRxiv
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Objective: To identify Dickkopf-1 (DKK1) as a prognostically relevant candidate in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma and to evaluate whether DKK1 and cytoskeleton-associated protein 4 (CKAP4) expression is associated with cervical lymph node metastasis in tongue squamous cell carcinoma (TSCC). Methods: DKK1 was screened using the Human Protein Atlas Pathology Atlas. Immunohistochemical expression of DKK1 and CKAP4 was examined in 54 patients with primary TSCC (cT1-4N0) treated surgically between 2015 and 2020. Nine cases were excluded because of insufficient tissue blocks or inadequate staining quality, leaving 45 evaluable cases. Associations with delayed cervical lymph node metastasis were assessed together with conventional clinicopathological factors, including infiltrative growth pattern (INF) and pathological depth of invasion (pDOI). Results: In public database analysis, high DKK1 expression was associated with poorer overall survival in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. In the TSCC cohort, pDOI [&ge;]5 mm and INF pattern c were significantly associated with cervical lymph node metastasis. Positive DKK1 and CKAP4 expression were also significantly associated with cervical lymph node metastasis. Furthermore, combined DKK1/CKAP4 positivity, when incorporated with INF and pDOI, provided additional risk stratification, and cases with all 3 factors showed a markedly increased likelihood of cervical lymph node metastasis. Conclusions: Expression of DKK1 and CKAP4 was associated with cervical lymph node metastasis in TSCC. Combined assessment of DKK1/CKAP4 expression with INF and pDOI may improve pathological risk stratification and may help identify patients who require closer neck evaluation and postoperative management.